Will history write it as PooTin, Benji or western stupidity that ultimately started it or someone else?

Leaked military documents show a country is fearful of war spilling across Europe - and it has already sent troops to Poland.

Germany’s worried. A leaked secret military report reveals it is exploring the idea of Russia being so emboldened by the United States’ abandonment of Ukraine that it also invades Poland. And it’s not alone.

German newspaper Bild has obtained a copy of Alliance Defense 2025 – an “exercise scenario” produced by Germany’s Ministry of Defence detailing a potential massive Russian assault on Europe.

It’s a worst-case scenario.

And the ministry has since emphasised that it is “highly unlikely”.

However, military intelligence agencies worldwide are constantly required to analyse a spectrum of possible near, intermediate, and far-future threats.

This one is based on the premise of the rapid collapse of Ukraine amid faltering Western support. And President Vladimir Putin doing precisely what he says he wants to do – invade the former East European Soviet states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.

They’re now members of the NATO military alliance. Any attack on any or all of these is considered an attack on every nation within the alliance.....

Netanyahu rejects US calls for Palestinian state after Gaza war.

sraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected US calls to scale back Israel's military offensive in the Gaza Strip or take steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state after the war, drawing an immediate scolding from the White House.....

Or the U.S. for supplying him with weapons too not only to lob on Palestinians to eradicate them, but to also lob into other countries causing more Arab conflict when those weapons would be better off being sent to the Ukraine instead?

Fighting rages across Gaza where death toll surges.

Strikes on Syria's Damascus sees at least 10 killed, including five Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

But let's not forget about about little overfed Kim and overfed Xi or even overfed Donny either.

Will history write it as PooTin, Benji or western stupidity that ultimately started it or someone else?...

... Or rather, something else...

Such as the interruption to world trade, or the present unsustainable bubble bursting for the world markets.

Or... An extreme weather event knocking over a few dominoes...

Or an interruption to the full flow of water along the Nile or the Ganges...


There is a lot to watch!

Meanwhile, Asia and the Middle East are a tangled mosaic of madness that is gathering further chips and splinters, day by day... How can we turn that around into love and understanding and cooperation and peace?


All in our deadly political world...
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

The reelection of Rump the PooTin lover would do it for sure.

Benji is definitely pushing for the title of v2.0 now. :-(

Netanyahu says war to continue 'on all fronts'.

WWIII, who will start it?

It's not of interest who will start it. It's more a question of when and where.

Donald Trump's reelection will set the date. Trump isn't going to ignite WWIII but he definitely will end the Pax Americana.

Unlikely? We will see... America first! NATO? Superfluous. Geostrategic competitors and enemies of the West will exploit this event as an opportunity to start conflicts all around the globe; no wars but minor battles, hybrid warfare, painful needle pricks everywhere. Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iran are just the beginning. Who will bear most of the blame for Trump's beliefs? We naive Europeans! The large majority of us still believes pacifism and disarmament leads to eternal world peace. Obama criticized it, Trump and Biden criticized it. Our ruling elites tell us since ~1990: this is the lesson we learned from WWII. Our today's conservatives don't disagree but duck away. Putin? A rational figure. If we no longer disturb him redesigning his Ukrainian front yard, he won't bother us any further. Eternal peace returns. What are we waiting for? Oh... his Baltic front yard? Well, if he just has to redesign it too; we shouldn't oppose.... The many nuclear IRBMs in Kaliningrad, just 300 km to Warsaw, 600 km to Berlin. We have to understand Russia fears us; that's why the rockets... We can't do anything... and after all... Putin is a rational leader, a "flawless democrat" as our former Chancelor explained. He is going to oppress Poland? Well, for centuries its East was part of Russia... We can't change the Russian mindset... and after all they are led by a rational leader.

So much more firewood to burn in WWIII:

• Iran's shia and Pakistan's sunni muslims attacking each other because of rebel groups; border conflicts...
  
• India's growing Hindu nationalism vs. muslim minorities (and Pakistan)
  
• China facing economic setbacks, thus loss of face domestically? Uh, Taiwan was ROBBED from China by the evil West...
  
• Vietnam, Philippines, Australia... all have been so rude and unfriendly to China recently...
  
• Kim?
  
• Who's faster? Iran's Mullah's finishing the Bomb or Iran's women ending their autocratic rule?
  
• Millions of easily irritated thus mobilizable Muslims in Western societies
  
• the woke metropolitan East Coast America vs. Trump's America.
  
• Nuclear threats to Israel from Iran (via Yemen's Houthis)
  

A strange dystopia? Or a quite likely future?

Leaked military documents show a country is fearful of war spilling across Europe - and it has already sent troops to Poland.

Germany’s worried. A leaked secret military report reveals it is exploring the idea of Russia being so emboldened by the United States’ abandonment of Ukraine that it also invades Poland. And it’s not alone.

German newspaper Bild has obtained a copy of Alliance Defense 2025 – an “exercise scenario” produced by Germany’s Ministry of Defence detailing a potential massive Russian assault on Europe.

"Bild" is Germany's widespread tabloid comparable to "Daily Mirror" in the UK. Nevertheless there are capable military analysts within Bundeswehr's general staff.

And the ministry has since emphasised that it is “highly unlikely”.

That's the politicians' assessment... Other events they assessed as 'highly unlikely':

• 2014: Russia occupying Crimea
  
• 2014: Russia as the initiator of the so-called "civil war" in Donetsk and Lukhansk districts of Ukraine
  
• 2016: Trump's election victory
  
• 2024: Trump's reelection
  

There are no plans nor any preparations for Putin threatening Baltic NATO countries or a Trump victory. They sit and watch the cobra with a cold shiver. So far it hasn't bitten them, so they keep on watching. Since more than a year they discuss to permanently deploy some dozen tanks and 5,000 German troops to Lithuania. When? Maybe in some years if circumstances allow, if there are enough trained soldiers, sufficient usable tanks; if there's infrastructure, housing, if A, if B, if C...

This one is based on the premise of the rapid collapse of Ukraine amid faltering Western support. And President Vladimir Putin doing precisely what he says he wants to do – invade the former East European Soviet states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.

Europe could easily replace America's financial aid to Ukraine starting tomorrow. It's much harder to replace U.S. armament and ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. The European defense industry already could have been ramped up with a year's notice---if there's the political will to do so. There isn't. There are sufficient many heavy weapons from the Cold War era still in the stocks of Western European armies to send them to Ukraine. Surely need some refurbishment... But the political will to spend relevant money for new armaments and massive amount of ammunition is completely missing. This is where left-wing pacifist beliefs are confronted with the long-confessed sin of Cold War's era "arms build-up"; they called it "over-armament" back then. "Arms build-up" still is a simple trigger word to morally condemn any political plans for adequately equipping armed forces or provide Ukraine with necessary arms. Most of today's politicians fear these widespread Cold War era pacifist beliefs of the majority more than Putin's threats. This is how an economic dwarf like Russia can threaten an economic giant like Europe. Only in Poland and the Baltics the beliefs of the majority changed completely. But they still lack the economic power and I fear Poland can't keep up its ambitious (ultra expensive) plans which would make it the most powerful land force in Europe.

They’re now members of the NATO military alliance. Any attack on any or all of these is considered an attack on every nation within the alliance.....

Back in the Cold War western politicians/diplomats found that this mantra (attack on any is an attack on all) is not sufficient to deter small-scaled attacks from the USSR. They developed NATO's strategy from "Massive Retaliation" to "Flexible Response" which required a massive increase in heavy weapons, military logistics, flexible pre-positioned troops near potential frontlines. These capacities have been completely abolished after 1990. Our politicians and diplomats lost former strategic awareness as well as any understanding of a reasonable military/security policy. Today they behave like 'Alice in Wonderland', surprised by each new and unexpected event. The Baltics are almost surrounded by Russia and Belarus; easily to separate from NATO territory. Credible naval power and amphibious forces can deter Russia there. Neither Finland, Sweden, the Balts nor Poland ever had them. (West) Germany had them until ~1990...2000. Today only Norway, NL, UK have significant naval power. Amphibious forces? Eventually the UK. Would the US risk thousands of US Marines for tiny Estonia or Latvia when Europeans can't contribute? That's European irresponsibility. The mantra “attack on any is an attack on all” led to this dangerous negligence. And the mistake of not wanting to provoke Russia in the Baltic Sea region before the events of 2014.

Well PooTin is definitely trying hard to keep his lead in the race.

Russia's Africa Push Sparks Alarm: 'Great Chaos Brewing'.

Russia has rapidly expanded its military presence in Libya, an investigation has found, sparking alarm at a time of heightened tensions between Moscow and the West amid the war in Ukraine.

Citing sources within Libyan security agencies and the Russian military, the independent Russian site Verstka, the All Eyes On Wagner Project, and the U.S.-funded media outlet Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, found that in the past few weeks alone, at least 1,800 Russian soldiers and mercenaries were deployed to the north African country, with some transferred on to neighboring Niger, where tensions are brewing between Moscow and Washington.

Russia's Wagner mercenary group has maintained a covert presence in Libya following the NATO-backed ousting of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011. Washington has accused Moscow of using its mercenaries in Libya to interfere in conflict in the country.

After a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Libya's eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar in late September 2023, Bloomberg reported that a defense accord was being laid out that would see Moscow expand its military presence in eastern Libya, and could lead to a naval base.....

Who will get there 1st?

PooTin?

The West watches anxiously as Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un sign new defence pact.

Or Adolf Benji?

Head of Hezbollah tells Israel there will be no safe place in event of broader war, threatens Cyprus for first time.

While Xi's pirates continue their activity in SE Asian waters.

Philippines accuses Chinese coast guard of boarding and ramming its navy vessels in South China Sea.

Or Adolf Benji?

Head of Hezbollah tells Israel there will be no safe place in event of broader war, threatens Cyprus for first time.

Why Benji? It's Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who endangers peace.

Threatening Cyprus means threatening the UK. The last pompous autocrat who thought he must attack sovereign British territory soon regretted it. Let's hope that the mighty, invincible Hezbollah also runs a diplomatic service that does not miss such subtleties on the island of Cyprus.

Or Adolf Benji?
Head of Hezbollah tells Israel there will be no safe place in event of broader war, threatens Cyprus for first time.

Why Benji? It's Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who endangers peace..

Yes, Benji. Even his own military knows the bare truth. Hezbollah is an idea. You can't militarily defeat an idea. You can start a war over an idea, but you can't defeat it. Heck, Neo-Nazi's picking up Adolph's book decades later proves that ideas don't die. If Benji wants peace he must look somewhere besides violence upon others. As he won't look elsewhere it is obvious he wants a perpetual war of increasing depravity. Like Pootin. <ed> it is how he stays in power!

Yes, Benji. Even his own military knows the bare truth. Hezbollah is an idea. You can't militarily defeat an idea. You can start a war over an idea, but you can't defeat it. Heck, Neo-Nazi's picking up Adolph's book decades later proves that ideas don't die. If Benji wants peace he must look somewhere besides violence upon others. As he won't look elsewhere it is obvious he wants a perpetual war of increasing depravity. Like Pootin. <ed> it is how he stays in power!

Hezbollah is the tool of the Mullahs to threaten Israel from close quarters and to attack it with impunity. They became the dominant terrorist faction after Israel forced Arafat's PLO terrorists out of Lebanon in 1982.

U.S. and French Forces supervised PLO's withdrawal in Lebanon which made them the next terror targets [1], [2], killing hundreds of U.S. and French forces. Either international powers remove Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon or Israel will do so at some point. The U.S. and Europe prefer appeasement. The status quo, neither peace nor war, that is: some rockets or RPGs each month hitting Israels' military positions was widely accepted as "normal", monitored, registered and reported by busy but superfluous UN peace keeping forces. On Oct 7th it became unbearable when Hezbollah started to attack Israel's North so massively that tens of thousands of Israelis have been evacuated from their towns and villages, 10% of Israel's territory. No sovereign state can and will accept such acts of war. Hezbollah ever refused to retreat from Israel's borders (north of the Litani river) which was the negotiated condition of Israel's retreat from Lebanon in 2006. Appeasement doesn't work.

The Nazi idea... Am I supposed to accept it was a mistake to destroy this idea and to tear out its roots by Allied occupation forces and an International Military Tribunal? Of course you can defeat a death cult like Hamas or Hezbollah, because they cannot offer their people a life of prosperity and peace. Their 'idea' consist of hatred, misery, and suffering.

Yet you ignore the all atrocities that Israeli governments have for generations carried out on the Palestinian people and still are, in earnest currently.

Yet you ignore the all atrocities that Israeli governments have for generations carried out on the Palestinian people and still are, in earnest currently.

No I'm not ignoring atrocities. I explain why Israel is forced to defend its sovereignty. You ignore an endless chain of terrorist atrocities and pogroms of Arabs against Israel. It's the state of affairs since at least a hundred years. Tit for Tat.

"Peace will come when the Arabs start to love their children more than they hate us.", Golda Meir, Israel's PM (1969-1974)

[EDIT to add:] Palestinians.... Why are Palestinians being used as a justification for Hezbollah's aggression? Because Israel fights Hamas based on its right to self-defense, does every nation on earth and every terrorist organization be it Hezbollah, Houthis, ISIS or Taliban now have a justified reason to attack Israel with ballistic missiles? No, they do not. Under international law, the Lebanese government is responsible for Hezbollah's rockets. They are powerless mooks, but will have to bear the consequences.

Anyway, I think this gets off-topic because I assume Hezbollah and Iran have not the 'weight' to ignite WWIII. This is especially true since the Mullah's threat to cut off the U.S. and the West from oil in the Strait of Hormuz faded away with increased U.S. domestic production and the started ICE-->BEV transition. There are other regions where WW3 may ignites: China, India and Pakistan, Russia, eventually Korea.

"Peace will come when the Arabs start to love their children more than they hate us.", Golda Meir, Israel's PM (1969-1974)

Which sadly appears to be all too true unto continued death and misery...

All logic to bring the atrocities to an end, on all sides, appears to have been long lost into deeply troubled vengeful no-logic deadly emotions.

How to turn around (lifelong) 'feelings'?


And there is far too much deadly propaganda, social media, and news media, all stirring up yet more feelings of hatred.

How to undo all that?


Instead:

Be Excellent to All!
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

PooTin and Xi will be spewing.

US Intel Helps NATO Ally Seize China 'War Drones'.

Customs police in southern Italy have announced the seizure of an undeclared shipment of Chinese "war drones" bound for Libya in a weekslong sting operation reportedly coordinated with the help of intelligence from the United States.

Authorities in Italy's southern Calabria region said on Tuesday that the bust of six containers from China at the port of Gioia Tauro uncovered the "fuselages and wings of drones intended for military use."

The components, which had been disguised as wind turbine parts, could be assembled into two unmanned aerial vehicles each weighing over 3 tons, with a length of 32 feet and a wingspan of 65 feet, according to the joint statement issued by Italy's customs agency.

Photographs released by the agency pointed to the equipment belonging to China's Wing Loong II drone, which was first exported to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not immediately return a request for comment before publication.......

Why don't they simply send a Chinese Cargo Aircraft to Libya? Wouldn't it be easier?

Well it looks like delusional Donny is the favourite now with his growing stupidity stirring up crap all over the world.

I'd say not 'stirring up' but by emboldening autocrats, signaling them their imperial ambitions don't affect the US, instead of credibly deterring them. By clearly communicating that lucrative economic deals are more important to America now than upholding the principles of international law, as enshrined in the UN Charter.

Trump isn't a warmonger, but someone who is dismantling the diplomatic structures that currently maintain world peace. The wolves are already lurking, everywhere. Hungry...

Btw... what's Cambodia doing? Sudden border skirmishes because of border demarcations from the French colonial era, disputed since decades? Suddenly they possess powerful, long-range weapon systems, made in China, against (the supposedly superior) Thailand. Who benefits from that? The supplier of these weapons? Striving for access to the Indian Ocean?

A tag team of Adolf Benji and Delusional Donny Mussolini are now the front runners in this race of stupidity.

Seems the Mullahs exited this race.