After a crisis in the German government that has been escalating for days, the Chancellor this evening declared he will sack the Finance Minister, the leader of the Liberals, one of the three governing parties. That means the breakup of the government coalition. The remaining two factions (Social Dems and Greens) have no majority.

The reasons are fundamentally opposing positions on economic and finance policy. Trump's election has probably only confirmed the Liberals' demand for change.

There will be probably* (for Germany rare) snap elections, which the Conservatives are likely to win.

* otherwise a blocked government until regular elections in ten months.

Chancellor (red parachute): "Mr. Lindner you're fired!". Finance Minister (yellow...). The "Ampel"* coalition.
Bottom line: "Finally... strong leadership!"

[*] Ampel = traffic light... the coalition parties' colors: red, yellow, and green

So I guess that this gives the AfD (commonly known as the Adolf for Germany party in the English language) also has chance to take over now.

So I guess that this gives the AfD (commonly known as the Adolf for Germany party in the English language) also has chance to take over now.

No, the chance is ZERO.

Nazi or Hitler comparisions with today's far right are misleading because such comparisions belittles the Nazi fascism of the past. They are right-wing populists, many disappointed former Conservatives; but also right-wing ideologues; some of them lunatics. Anyway, the AfD will not be part of any federal or state government for the time being. Current polls see them at 18% of votes.

The optimal strategy to lessen populist votes is rational, credible government activity that addresses the real-world problems of the people. Our governing parties preferred to remain true to their ideologies and tear apart the coalition.

scholzing

intransitive verb / [...]

1 : communicating good intentions, only to use/find/invent any reason imaginable to delay these and/or prevent them from happening.

author: Timothy Garton Ash, Historian, Professor of European Studies, Oxford, UK

The German Constitution provides the Chancellor with the means of a confidence vote to ensure he has the majority of MPs in a government crisis. This typically forces a struggling government coalition to loyally stand behind the Chancellor (ends the crisis for some time) or forces apostates to publicly document the loss of majority (ends the government coalition). Our Chancellor Scholz himself ousted the Liberals, thus ended his government coalition; he literally dumped his majority (and power). It should be a formality to document this fact in a confidence vote ASAP. A failed vote results in a request to the Federal President to dissolve parliament and schedule snap elections within 60 days. But it's the Chancellor only who decides when or if he triggers a 'confidence vote'.

What is Scholz doing now? 'Scholzing' around. A confidence vote eventually in mid-January; snap elections eventually in spring... He explained, it depends on the opposition's willingness to cooperate... amusing... no... crazy.

Normally, the opposition can hinder a failed Chancellor from scholzing by means of a declaration of no confidence. But it has to be a constructive one (offering an alternative). This way a majority of MPs can elect another MP as Chancellor anytime, thereby ousting the incumbent one on the spot (happenend once in 1982). But now there' is an opposition majority, but not without the far-right AfD (Adolf for Germany, as Wiggo despised them). There will be no sane other MP who agrees to be elected by a majority if it includes [*] votes of AfD MPs.

So we now have a helpless, blocked government, with a powerless Chancellor who is appealing to the opposition's 'political responsibility' to support him in outstanding initiatives (to obtain majorities). Btw. we neither have an approved budget for 2025, nor a supplementary budget for 2024; that means provisional budget management; emergency debt authorizations, bypassing parliament...

In short: opposition smells the weakness and is on the hunt. The Chancellor will soon succumb to them. But when? In December? January? February? somewhen in spring? Maybe late spring? Uuuuh so short before summer holidays? So what about September when there will be regular elections anyway? Scholzing around...

We have removed the destructive means of "no confidence" to overthrow a Chancellor in today's constitution (1949 Bonn Republic) due to a worst-case experience. In the 1st German (Weimar) Republic (1919-1933), economic crisis; millions of unemployed in the 1930s led to frequent government overthrows, parliament dissolutions and snap elections at ever shorter intervals; nonetheless, without achieving a stable government coalition against the growing factions of ('international', that is Soviet-led) communists and (national) socialists. As a way out, several conservative leaders decided to "integrate" the largest faction (33% of votes), the right-wing NSDAP into a conservative government; its leader was elected Chancellor on Jan 30, 1933: Adolf Hitler.

[*] A Liberal MP in the Thuringian state parliament tried to form a liberal-conservative minority coalition with passive AfD votes to get a majority but not part of the government. As soon he was elected as State President he earned a brutal nationwide uproar. The Chancellor intervened (not his 'business', but...). Liberal leaders ordered him to resign; thus ended his political career just 28 days later.

The Chancellor's remaining coalition (Social Dems & Greens) has not had a majority since Nov 6th. Today, Scholz lost a confidence vote (as intended). There will be snap elections on February 23rd.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz loses confidence vote

Losing Monday's no-confidence vote was the outcome Scholz had wanted.

The process was designed specifically by the post-war founders of modern Germany to avoid the political instability of the Weimar era [1919-1933].

That was arguably the underlying problem that pulled apart Scholz's fractious coalition: big-spending left-leaning Social Democrats and Greens trying to work with free-market small-state liberals.

[...] but the underlying cause is more difficult to resolve and more worrying.

Germany's party political system has become more fragmented, with more parties than ever in parliament. The new upstart political forces are also more radical.

Rather than going away after the next election in February, that problem is likely to get worse. If the far-right wins a fifth of seats in parliament, it could be even more difficult after February to form a stable coalition between like-minded parties.

Another new populist political party could also get into parliament for the first time, the anti-migrant nativist far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance BSW, which is named after its firebrand leader, who joined the East German Communist party shortly before the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Whatever the next government looks like, the era of cosy consensual coalitions in Germany seems to be over.

Musk interviews German far-right frontwoman

Elon Musk took his endorsement of Germany's far-right party to the next level on Thursday, hosting a live chat with its frontwoman, Alice Weidel.

There'd been a considerable build-up to this discussion as Elon Musk faced accusations of meddling in Germany's snap election.

But the interview, conducted in English, was arguably as much a chance for the AfD to reach international audiences via Musk's X platform.

[Weidel] insisted her party was "conservative" and "libertarian" but had been "negatively framed" by mainstream media as extremist.

Sections of the AfD have been officially classed as right-wing extremist by German authorities.

On other matters, she and Musk chimed – and at times giggled - over Germany's infamous bureaucracy, its "crazy" abandonment of nuclear power, the need for tax cuts, free speech and "wokeness".

In a sometimes stilted and, at times, surprising conversation, one surreal moment came when Weidel asked Mr Musk if he believed in God.

The reply – for those who wish to know – was that he's open to the idea as he seeks to "understand the universe as much as possible".

The AfD, which also opposes Berlin's weapons aid to Ukraine, is polling second in Germany, with a snap federal election scheduled for 23 February.

However, it won't be able to take power as other parties won't work with it.

Nationwide snap elections on 23 Feb 2025 (21st Bundestag period):

Results (1st vote: majority in electoral districts):

• black - Conservatives (CDU)
  
• dark blue - Bavarian Conservatives (CSU)
  

----> both joint as "Union" since 1949

• red - Social Dems (SPD)
  
• green - Greens ("Bündnis90/Die Grünen")
  
• purple - Socialists ("Die Linke")
  
• light blue - right-wing Conservatives (AfD)
  

Btw.: the red patch just SW of Berlin is Chancellor Scholz's constituency which he won with 21.8% by a margin of only 1.2% (percent points) over the conservative candidate (20.6%), an AfD candidate (19.0%), and Green's current Foreign Minister Bärbock (15.9%).




Please note: Germany uses proportional voting; Majorities (of 1st vote) in districts don't determine proportion of parties' MP seats.
Instead the 2nd vote (party vote) alone decides on share of MP seats per party, thus on the potential government coalition:

example ballot; district 213 (Freising/Bavaria)

• 1st vote: (district candidate vote): Majority just decides which one (supposedly*) will win a seat (just half of MP seats are "direct" seats).
  
• 2nd vote: (party vote): share of accumulated votes (per state or nationwide) decides proportion of allocated MP seats per party (including direct ones); complex algorithm drafts "list candidates" from party's candidate lists, those with higher list position first.
  

[*] If a party wins more districts than it is entitled to, according to 2nd votes share, then the MP seats of districts with the weakest winners (margin to 2nd competitor) remain void; the (unlucky) "winner" eventually gets drafted from his/her parties' candidate list (2nd vote). Strange? Indeed!

The next German government will supposedly be a majority coalition of Conservatives (CDU/CSU) and Social Dems (SPD) led by Friedrich Merz (CDU) who will be elected as Chancellor by a majority of MPs as soon as a coalition is formed (discussion on common goals; ministry posts), supposedly around Easter (end of April).

Result: 2nd vote: (overall distribution of MP seats):


Remark.: SSW is Danish minority of Schleswig (exempted from 5% treshold; minority rights)

Source: Federal Returning Officer ("Bundeswahlleiterin")
- results (overall; in election districts...),
- configurable maps (voter turnout; 1st... 2nd vote; per state; per district, ...)

These parties missed the 5 % treshold, thus loose all of their MP seats; resp. don't get any:

• FDP - Liberals, previously part of government coalition, reached 4.3 %.
  
• BSW - Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, a novel anti-migrant, pro-Russia, nativist far-left party named after its firebrand leader, a MP for "Die Linke"/The Left (Socialists) and a former convinced East German Communist, achieved 4.972 % of 2nd votes, missing the treshold by just around ~13,000 votes.
  

How to overcome/defuse/dilute the harsh East-West divide?...


Be excellent to one another!
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

How to overcome/defuse/dilute the harsh East-West divide?...

I don't think there's a harsh East-West divide. The demands of the people are the same in the East and West. Widespread election victories of right-wing populists are an amber light to government to no longer ignore demands of the people in core political issues. This amber light could be seen since a decade everywhere in Germany; it just shines brighter, more powerful in the East, now that it was suddenly discovered with a shock.

Such populist majorities could be easily ignored if it was just about Eastern constituencies as their population share is just 15% (19% Berlin included) of Germany's total population. East German votes do not turn outcome of nationwide elections. But populist candidates became also the strong 2nd winners in most constituencies of Southern Germany, especially Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, almost everywhere reaching 20...30% of vote share.... and 15...25% in most parts of Western and Northern Germany. The East is just 5 to 10 years ahead of developments which are inevitable in the West too, if next government don't changes course.

The reason possibly is a different economic base (greater prosperity creates 'calmness'?), but especially their different history and experiences with blinkered (Communist) governments, thus 'sensitive antennas' for failed, ideologic policies, whitewashing or misleading propaganda in core topics (e.g. economic and energy policies, migration).

Take this map of populist vote share in all constituencies in Germany (click "Constituencies" button to switch to more detailed district level; mouseover displays results).
That's not a harsh East-West divide.

The populist AfD accumulated just ~28% of their (2nd) votes in the five Eastern states (Berlin excluded which predominantly voted green/Left like most metropolises). But more than 72% (almost three quarters) of AfD's votes came from Western, Southern and Northern German states (and Berlin). The map of constituency majorities disguises this fact. Politicians who seek easy answers for unwanted results abuse this still not widely known fact and prefer to scold irresponsible "Easterners".

Next government's task is: perceive reality and adapt policies accordingly.... and move quickly...

The likely next Chancellor Merz, despite being a rural West German Catholic, enjoys great respect among East German conservative supporters. But in the current election there was zero confidence for voters, a conservative victory would change anything more than replacing the Chancellor and continue the previous political stagnation with the same uncompromising coalition partners, that is Greens and/or Social Dems; the minimum consensus of opposing political convictions. Every credible government that is going to address the real-world concerns of the people will dismantle populist vote shares fast.

The most dangerous problem Germany faces now is the blocking minority of the collective far-left and far-right. No changes to constitution, borrowing rules; or appointing judges to the Constitutional Court without consent of either far-left or the far-right. Both are pro-Russia, pro-Putin; against rebuilding military capabilities to deter Russia's threats or to become somewhat independent from the USA.

Following the opening of the next Bundestag parliamentary season, Chancellor Scholz and his government were dismissed today by the Fed. President. The next Chancellor will (supposedly) be elected by a parliament majority; the incumbent one remains in office as acting Chancellor till then.

Who? When? We'll wait and see.

Everything seems possible in a divided parliament with a weak leader Merz of the "strongest" faction, the Conservatives (CDU), who won just 208 out of 630 MP seats; thus depend on Social Dems (SPD) to join a government coalition. There's no other option because Greens gained too few seats and Conservatives excluded coalitions with the extreme right (AFD) as well as the extreme left ("Die Linke") who together already form a blocking minority of 216 out of 630 MPs (slightly more than one third). Social Dems know how to exploit this awkward Conservative's position in order to assert the maximum of their campaign promises (or rather to blackmail them?). Btw. it was the Social Dems who lost the elections in a landslide because of the weak performance of their Chancelor's Scholz government.

Now, it doesn't feels like that for Conservatives whose party members and voters are fuming each day watching the news on the progress of negotiations.

There certainly is a threshold when bold demands from Social Dems become unacceptable, ending negotiations. Then it's up to: Do they want to govern? Or do they rather risk maximum confrontation, denying concessions? In this case our President Steinmeier (a Social Dem too, btw.) has to decide if he appoints a conservative Chancellor without majority (never happened since WWII) or calls for snap elections again, where Social Dems surely would fare better with a more popular candidate while Conservatives would be beaten by voters for betraying parties' core beliefs and most campaign promises.

If there weren't a Trump and Putin out there roaming wild, the Conservatives would have to take the time (many months.. one.. two years) to play all constitutional options (minority government, changing majorities for each proposition, confidence vote, then snap elections), instead of allowing themselves to be blackmailed, just to form a government quickly.

A weak conservative Chancellor at the mercy of the Left obviously will not remain in office for long.

The AfD "Adolf for Germany" party hits troubled times.

German spy agency labels far-right AfD party 'extremist'.

A far-right party in Germany has been labelled an "extremist" entity that threatens democracy by a German intelligence agency.

The spy agency said it now had evidence the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party, which is the second biggest force in German parliament, works against the country's democracy.

A report by experts found that the AfD is a racist and anti-Muslim organisation, a finding that grants the security services powers to recruit informants and intercept party communications.......

I guess that Elon will soon add his 2 cents worth in.

The AfD "Adolf for Germany" party hits troubled times.

Not this party... the German democracy hits troubled times. It's obviously endangered by extremist politicians in power, here the incumbent Minister of the Interior, Mrs. Faeser (SPD... Social Dems), who doesn't respect the principles of our constitution, thus clearly violated her oath of office.

This 'spy agency' (don't think the translation fits)... is the "Verfassungsschutz (BfV)" (Fed. Office for the Protection of the Constitution); a secret, clandestine, federal police. The BfV is subject to the directives of Mrs. Faeser; who only formally still is the incumbent minister, as the succeeding government isn't in power yet (supposedly tomorrow, May 6th). She took this stunt on her last day in power (against bipartisan consent between current and succeeding government not to do this).

The opposition party AfD was 'labeled' "a verified extremist endeavour", a term you can find neither in our constitution, nor in the relevant German criminal code. The classification wasn't done by the Supreme Court, not even any court, but solely by this subordinate government authority "BfV". A retired leader of such an office of a fed. state, assessed it as an (extralegal) 'assumption of authority'. Mrs. Faeser, as supervising minister, expressed she had not read the report, nor influenced the assessment. Of course not, ridiculous.

The classification "extremist" is detailled in an 1,200 pages report (collecting mostly public but also non-public statements of AfD MPs and ordinary members). The secret report has no named authors, and will not be published ("classified, for official use only"). The affected AfD party cannot access it. More critical observers rant, the "Stasi" (former East german regime's secret political police, monitoring and subverting government opponents) is back. The usual pro-government media outlets admitted: they got the report (or excerpts) (their sources confidential and protected, of course) and already cited from it.

The AfD is outspoken against open borders and mass immigration. We have freedom of speech; I'd assume, a legitimate political opinion.

The Constitution Protection office summarizes its classification as "verified right-wing extremist": (only in German):

"Decisive for our assessment is the AfD's ethnic-based understanding of the people, which devalues entire population groups in Germany and violates their human dignity. This understanding of the people is concretized in the party's overall anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim stance."

This 'ethnic-based understanding of the people' is enshrined in our constitution (Grundgesetz (GG) - Base Law) and further federal laws; and was undisputed until about ~10 years ago. The 'right of decent' (Ius sanguinis) applies, as everywhere in continental Europe, not the 'right of soil' (Ius soli) as in e.g. the U.S. An immigrant's child doesn't get German citizenship; instead a birth certificate stating the nationality of its parents. Applying for citizenship requires years of residence, language proficiency, (further requirements)... The overwhelming majority or Germans (~80%) rejects to abolish the principle of 'Ius sanguinis'.

For example § 6 BVFG (federal law, defining rights of expelees from former 'German Reich' territories, lost in WW2) states:

§ 6 Ethnic affiliation
(1) Ethnic German, in terms of this law, is, who professed German ethnicity in their homeland, [...] confirmed by certain characteristics, such as ancestry, language, upbringing, and culture.

Our Constitution states:

§ 116 GG:
(1) "A German [...] is who possesses German citizenship or someone of German ethnic origin or who, as the spouse or descendant of such a person [...]

That's an ethnic-based understanding of the German people (which doesn't prohibit foreigners from applying for citizenship, as soon as requirements are fulfilled).

The advocates of 'open borders', 'no one is illegal', 'all humans are equal', 'citizenship for everyone' despise these in (their view) outdated principles of people, nationality, and citizenship. But it's a solely political topic to change our constitution. Problem is, that requires a two-third majority, which is unrealistic for the forseeable future.

With the coming Merz government tomorrow, the Interior Ministry will be transferred to the CSU (Bavarian Conservatives); so a Bavarian 'Black Sheriff' (think of a Texan... I'm exaggerating), will replace her. An incumbent outgoing minister before inauguration of its successor shouldn't make far reaching decisions, literally in the last minute. It's bad government practice. Mrs. Faeser's (resp. Scholz') SPD party was brutally beaten in the elections, just reaching 16% of votes; she will not be part of the coming Merz government coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD. Her party leaders 'sacrificed' her. It's a dirty political game of a bad loser who lacks any responsible statesmanship, post WW2 Germany is---or rather was---known for.

The 'Black Sheriff', coming Interior minister Dobrindt (CSU), would not have tolerated such a libel of the largest opposition faction AfD. But as soon as he may decides to revert this "label", the unified Left: that is, the Greens, Social Dems, and Left Party ("Die Linke") will brutally beat him; scorn him as irresponsible, acquiting 'Nazis'. I already can imagine the headlines. That's why: "verified right-wing extremist". Mission accomplished.

It's a political, or rather a culture war between the progressive, confident (and loud) parliamentary Left (in the false assumption to represent the majority of the people) against the backward (what else...) doubtful Conservatives, who fear somebody could catch them just talking to one of these smelly, dirty, populist, nazi, [fill in suitable accusations] AfD MPs.

As long as the growing right-wing opposition can be depicted as 'extremist', 'untouchable', or 'nazi', conservatives are locked in center-left coalitions as in past 12 years which already damaged their reputation and confined potential election outcome. This way the Left (Greens, SPD) can blackmail conservatives, because there is no alternative to gain a "democratic" (non-nazi) majority without them. Conservatives won't dare to talk to Anti-Democrats, ... to Lucifer.

Friedrich Merz (CDU) failed in the parliament voting for Chancellor. This never happened in the history of the 2nd German Republic (since 1949). He was NOT elected and achieved only 310 of the 621 casted MP votes, even though his intended governing coalition comprises 328 MPs. The required majority is 316 of 630 MPs. At least eighteen MPs of the coalition parties (CDU, CSU, SPD) denied him their vote which is a tremendous amount.

Any number of further voting rounds are possible within a limit of 14 days; the next supposedly tomorrow. Merz' chancellorship is already damaged. The Constitution also enables parliament now to elect a different MP as Chancellor. If there's no absolute majority for any MP within 14 days, a last voting round elects those MP as Chancelor who gets the most votes (even without the absolute majority of all MP votes). The Fed. President then can either appoint this MP as (a weak) Chancellor without majority (never happened since 1949) or dissolve the Bundestag and call again for snap elections.

Some believe to see the harbingers of "Weimar" approaching. Pah...

Others are muttering, the cardinals in Rome will probably have elected a pope, thus we will see white smoke rising sooner than a chancellor will be elected in Berlin... Well...

Pictures of the Reichstag building; black smoke rises from a chimney. Haha... not funny.

2nd voting round already this afternoon, after all parties agreed to speed up the election process skipping formal deadlines:

Friedrich Merz was elected Chancellor: 618 votes, 3 invalid; 325 for him, 289 against; thus he reached the majority of 316 in the 2nd attempt.

It happened today that I read a political comment: "Trump for Bundeskanzler" (Trump for Chancellor). Uggghhh.

This provocation contains a grain of truth, though.

Our current government is more like a ship of fools, where the captain doesn't know the course; the chief wants to go north, the helmsman to the South, the captain inconclusive. Rough seas ahead. The sinking of this ship with this crew wouldn't be unexpected. Just the exact time and cause of accident are still unknown. But the aura surrounding ship and crew is unmistakable. Doom.

German political stability? A distant memory of the past.

Just this one detail: Last weekend, the incumbent labor minister (Social Dems) addressed her parties' youth organization, telling them it's the employers (business owners) in Germany who are 'the opponents that we must fight together'. The conservative chancellor tolerates it. His office depends on the coalition majority. Social Dems (just 16% share of votes in prev. elections) can blackmail him at will... even with bygone 20th century communist class struggle BS.

Snap elections? Unlikely... our President wouldn't approve[*] them (a Social Dem btw., how convenient...). Snap elections now would damage all parties (as in the UK) except populist (left- and right-wing) ones.

Weimar vibes? Not yet...
___________________________________________________

[*] It's this detail that was missing in the otherwise brilliant 1919 "Weimar Republic" constitution. Our current 1949 "Bonn Republic" constitution adopted many of its provisions, fixing the fatal flaw:

Avoid situations where a failed government may cannot be replaced by another majority coalition, not even after a sequence of frequent snap elections; thus forcing a de-facto governing President to rule by decree only, bypassing parliament.

Ouch... another déjà vu (see first line).